Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Is Tom DeMark Sequential Indicator Profitable in Eur/Usd Swing Trading ?

I used the same programming code of Hang Seng Index to backtest the performance of Tom DeMark Sequential Indicator applying on Daily Eur/Usd data. I found similar performance of the indicator used in Hang Seng Index trading. The following two charts show the result of Non-Perfect and Perfect setup / countdown. The targets include 0.236, 0.386, 0.5, 0.618, 0.764, 1, 1.272 and 1.618.
It can be seen that the highest return is obtained at 1.272 target. Besides, it is obvious that the smaller the target ratio is, the smaller the profit is. The Perfect setup and countdown may have better result than the non-perfect setup and countdown.

Looking at the highest annual gain of 1.272 target from 1996 to March 2013, it is only about 300 pips, it is not much compared with the drawdown.

Although it seems that Tom DeMark Sequential Indicator does not have good return, it is possible to have bigger return if the indicator is modified. I'll post another blog article to describe a modified use of the indicator.


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