Thursday, March 7, 2013

Is Flag or High Tight Flag pattern profitable in Forex market ?

I test the performance of Flag / High Tight Flag patterns for the major Forex currency data from 4/1/2011 to 26/6/2012. It is found that these patterns are quite profitable as similar to other people claimed before about their profitability in the stock market.

The currency pairs I test include Eur/Usd, Usd/Jpy, Gbp/Usd and Usd/Chf. The equity charts assume that each time a 2 lots mini contract (US$10,000) is placed, the stop loss is set to 10 pips below the channel of the flag and the breakout price is assumed at 20 pips above the flag channel for a bull flag. Similar setting of stop loss and breakout price is used for the bear flag. The contracts are closed if the price reaches 0.764 extension level from the breakout. There will be a loss if the price hits the stop loss first. The chart shown below has included the bid/ask spread cost of the currency pair but does not include the roll over interest of the pair.

The Flag / High Tight Flag pattern performs well in the first 11 months of 2011 but has a loss of about US$1600 from Dec 2011 to June 2012. The 6 months bad performance of the Flag / High Tight Flag pattern is not what I like although it is generally good in performance compared to other chart patterns.

No comments:

Post a Comment